1月28日付けのロイター社のコラムでも述べたが、世界の株式市場、為替相場の波乱局面入りを語るニュースが急に増えているので幾つか目についたものをテイクノートしておきます。
IMF warns over impact of global market turmoil DJ Jan.31
quote : The International Monetary Fund on Friday warned emerging economies to shore up
their defenses amid challenging global turmoil that has sparked a broad-based sell-off in
financial markets.
An IMF spokesperson said they could not find a single trigger for the turmoil, but also appeared
to warn central banks generally to be cautious about tightening monetary conditions.
"Many emerging economies, along with other asset classes, have come under renewed market
pressure in recent days," the spokesperson said in an emailed statement.
"While it is difficult to pinpoint a single trigger for the sell-off, the turbulence underscores the
challenging situation that many countries face as a result of tighter external financing
conditions, slower growth, and softer commodity prices."
***
Signs of ‘Panic,’ in Three Charts WSJ Jan.31
Some $6.4 billion was pulled out of emerging-market equity funds, according to EPFR Global,
the largest outflow since August 2011 amid the euro crisis and the downgrade of the U.S. credit
rating. For bargain-hunting investors looking to buy near the bottom, they might want to wait
longer.
As the chart below shows, emerging-market equity funds would need to witness
another $15 billion in outflows over the next two to three weeks before his data
would trigger a “contrarian buy signal.”
Mr. Hartnett’s analysis is consistent with what Goldman SachsGS -1.04% reported earlier this
week. Over the past decade, there have been 19 times when the MSCI Emerging
Markets index dropped by at least 5%, according to Goldman analysts. The average
pullback was12% and lasted about 35 days. The recent emerging-markets turmoil has
lasted about a month, during which the index has fallen more than 7%.
Meanwhile, combined emerging-market debt and equity funds witnessed a combined $9.1 billion
in outflows, which Mr. Hartnett says rivals the outflows during May 2013 (the taper tantrum),
August 2011 (the debt-ceiling debacle) and Lehman’s bankruptcy (September 2008).
And finally, emerging-market debt and equity funds over the past three months have seen
outflows of about $42 billion, or about 4% of all assets under management.
***
IMFも昔（1990年代）に比べるとずいぶんと「気の利いた」タイミングで（まるで金融機関のストラテジストのようなタイミングで）警告メッセージを発信するようになりましたね(^_^;) ただしこういう「当局メッセージ」というのは、効果が強すぎると相場の暴落を自己実現することにもなりかねない。 そういう難しさがあります。
新興諸国の株価の合成指数としては、私はいつも以下のMSCI-emerging指数に連動するETF（ドル建て）の価格動向を見ています。
とりあえず目先最低１か月ほどは波乱局面が続く可能性が高いと見ておきましょうか。どの程度の「調整」で終わるかはわかりませんが、１月のブログで書いた通り、ど～んと下がったところはドルも株も恐る恐る買ってみましょうかね。
近著「稼ぐ経済学～黄金の波に乗る知の技法」（光文社）2013年5月20日
